Model Portfolio Review at Dec 01, 2017

 Preface

Google Finance announced the retirement of it's portfolio tracker in the summer of 2017.  This blog gathers it's data and graphs exclusively from Google Finance and with the deprecation of the portfolio management, updates to this blog will also come to an end.  

I still haven't found another free portfolio tracker on the web, but I will continue to look and maybe one day I can continue my portfolio updates.

I have managed to capture the portfolio data this one last time before it all vanishes, so here is the final post for this blog.   

Portfolios

May 2014

All stocks are showing positive returns, majority with double digit gains.  Best Stocks:  GC 101% and GIB.A 85%.   

YTD returns of the portfolio are 33%.  On the initial investment of $35,262, the portfolio is now worth $47,975, an increase of $11,643.  Dividends accrued is $1070.

Annualized ROI is approx 9% year over year for the past 3.5 years, inclusive of dividends.

Performance graph May 2014 thru November 2017 and shows a total YTD return of 36.3%, giving us a dividend yield of 3.6%.  M2014 portfolio is now at an all time high.

M2014 portfolio returns of 36.3% as compared to TSX 10.7% over the same period.  Pretty much outperformed the Toronto Stock Exchange over the entire period.

M2014 transaction data captured for future reference.

May 2015

The M2015 portfolio is also showing positive returns on all it's stocks.  Every stock return is in the double digits.  Best stocks of this portfolio are ATD.B 35% and NA 31%. 

Total investment of $13,233 now has a value of $18,621 for a gain of $3009.  Portfolio return is 23.19% excluding DH and 15% adjusted for DH losses.  DH residual value and dividends totalled $2319.

M2015 annualized return is 14.5% over 2.5 years.

The performance graph for the M2015 portfolio shows a total 21.9% return inclusive of dividends (includes DH loss).  This portfolio is also at an all time high.

During the past 2.5 years, the M2015 portfolio 21.9% outperformed the 7% returns of the TSX.

M2015 transaction data above.

May 2016

With the exception of CRT.UN, all stocks are in positive territory.  Best performing stocks in this portfolio are ECI 24% and AQN also 24%.  

Total investment of $35,045 is now worth $41,217 that includes dividends of $2578 and gains of $3593.  Portfolio gain is 10.25%.

Total portfolio gains amount to $6172 for a year over year annualized return of 11.15% over the past 1.5 years.

The M2016 portfolio peaked in June 2017, but is now back near it's high.  The total return is 17.85% inclusive of dividends.

The TSX was much stronger over the past 1.5 years with a solid 15.42% return.  The M2016 portfolio managed to just better it at 17.8% as you can see from the graph.

 Here are the M2016 transactions.

 May 2017

The M2017 portfolio is definitely not performing as desired, losing about 2.5% year to date.  Initial cost of this portfolio was $17,327 but it is only worth $16,983 giving a loss of $429.

Best performers of this portfolio are TSGI at 21.4% and RCH at 11%.  The big drags on this portfolio are UNS down 29.47% and CAS down 22%.

We are about two thirds into this portfolio's lifespan and it is showing -3.3% ROI.

With the small amount of dividends this portfolio has generated, it reduces it's overall loss to -1.6%.  It has never shown a profit to date.

The M2017 couldn't even beat the lacklustre performance of the TSX's 3.37% and the performance deficit appears to be widening.

The transaction data for M2017.

Model Portfolio Review at Sep 02, 2017

M2014 Portfolio

Holdings and Performance

EQB is the only stock showing a loss, all others posting gains.  GC continues to be the winner in this group with a whopping 127% return.  Portfolio has increased in value $8075, posting a 22.9% gain.

Since inception, the graph shows a total portfolio return of 25.89% which includes dividends.  This implies a dividend yield of about 3%. Over the same period of time, the TSX eked out a mere 4.66%.

Plugging the portfolio data into our ROI calculator, we get 7.1% annualized (year over year) return.

M2015 Portfolio

Holdings and Performance

Doing much better on this portfolio, everything is showing positive returns.  SJ and T are giving us single digit returns, whereas the top performer WPK is up 32%.  As I mentioned in my previous post, DH was bought out and is no longer traded on the TSX.  We therefore experienced a loss of 37.5% on this stock before it stopped trading.  With the loss of DH, the overall portfolio return is now 9.5%.  The portfolio performance gain  without DH is $2225 and up 16.8% , before dividends are factored in.

Despite the loss of DH, the M2015 portfolio is still far exceeding the TSX's overall return of 1.1%.

Factoring in dividends, the yearly return without DH is 13.6%.  

M2016 Portfolio

Holdings and Performance

Starting to see a performance pullback in the M2016 portfolio.  CRT.UN, FCR and ITP are laggards and in the red.  Best performing stock of this group is ECI.  Overall, the portfolio is up a modest 7.5%.

Interesting to note that the TSX rebounded in the past year posting a healthy return of 9%.  With dividends, the M2016 portfolio managed to better the TSX return at 13.9%.  The dividends generated are almost doubling the performance of this portfolio (7.5% vs 13.9%).  Dividend yield is therefore 6.4%.

On an annualized basis, the M2016 portfolio is returning a respectable 10.4%.

M2017 Portfolio

Holdings and Performance

I think I accidentally deleted the screen shot for the M2017 holdings, so here is a more current one from October 15.  The performance graph is accurate though.  This portfolio has done poorly from the outset.  From May through September is has continued on a downward trend.  Almost all stocks are in a negative position with the exception of RCH.  Worst performer is UNS down over 20%. In September this portfolio was down a staggering 8% for the past 6 months.   I won't calculate the annual ROI until the portfolio has passed the one year mark.

Summary

Portfolios and total overall returns (inclusive of dividend yield), at Sept 2017

May 2014 - 25.89% (up, previously 16.42% in May 2017)
May 2015 - 13.6% (down, previously 15.36% in May 2017)
May 2016 - 13.9% (down, previously 16.17% in May 2017)
May 2017 - (8%), down since portfolio inception

Review of Model Portfolios as at May 28, 2017

Hi and welcome back to my stock portfolio blog.  Wow, it's been three years since I started it and I can't believe how time flies.  

The TSX is slumping yet global stock markets are still strong.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/16/global-stock-markets-whats-driving-the-rise-and-will-it-continue

I remain cautious right now.

Let's now examine the portfolios of the past three years.

May 2014 Portfolio

Most of the stocks in the M2014 portfolio are doing well.  LNR and STN are both down a bit but not much.  Strongest stocks in this portfolio are GIB.A and GC.  EQB is down close to 20%, mostly due to the recent events surrounding mortgage lender Home Capital Group (HCG).  There haven't been any reported problems at EQB, but it's being painted with the same brush as HCG.

Overall the portfolio is returning 13.7% before dividends and including dividends of 16.4% over the past 3 years, so our dividend yield is just under 3%.  On a year over year basis, the portfolio is doing about 5% each year, which is kind of meh.

For those of you with financial advisors that are managing your portfolios, make sure that you are asking them to provide you with both sets of numbers, ie Overall performance to Date and Year over Year performance.  You might have a great one year return, but you'll want to know how your portfolio is doing over it's lifespan to get a better idea of the overall portfolio health.

Oh another thing, don't forget to subtract the fees you pay your financial advisors from the portfolio calculations because they will have an impact on your overall return.  Ask your FA if your portfolio performance is net of their fees or not.

On the bright side, the M2014 portfolio is faring much better against the TSX for the past 3 years.  The TSX has only returned a total of 6.2%, or about 2% year over year.   Still better than current GIC returns but just barely.

May 2015 Portfolio

Here's our two year old portfolio.  Again, most of the stocks are doing well.  Stella Jones (SJ) is borderline and the worst performer is fintech company Davis and Hendersen (DH).  DH is being bought out and the transaction closes by 3rd quarter of this year.  There is no more hope of this stock rebounding and the next time we review this portfolio, it will probably be gone.  Strongest stocks in  this portfolio are WPK and ATD.B.

The M2015 portfolio had more of a dividend focus and that has made a strong impact on the returns.
Before dividends, the portfolio returned 9.7% but inclusive of dividends, this portfolio returned 15.3% over two years.  Dividend yield was a healthy 5%. Year over year performance is 7.4% each year.  If you look at the graph, we see a surprising correlation between it's jump in performance and Donald Trump's presidency, both occurring around the November timeframe.  Heh.  Wait until you see the M2016 performance chart.

As compared to the TSX, this portfolio performed much better than the TSX average of 2.6%.

May 2016 Portfolio

Our one year old portfolio is doing exceptionally well.  There is one stock which isn't faring so well, retail property owner/operator First Capital Realty (FCR), down about 5%.  Best performers are AQN and RNW both of which are renewable/electric power generation companies. Hey, wasn't I supposed to diversify?  Why do i have two companies in the same sector?  Oops, my bad.

Well, the portfolio performance is benefitting from my mistake.  It's up 11% over the past year. and when you factor in dividends, the portfolio return jumps to 16%.  Our dividend yield is therefore 5%.
The portfolio performance was actually starting to slump until Donald Trump won his presidency, and then the performance just took off.  Now the performance is starting to peter out, which just happens to be after his first 100 days in office.  Crazy, huh?

Surprisngly, the TSX has had a decent year also with an average return of over 10%.  But we still beat that performance, which is all that matters.

Feb 2017 Portfolio

Here's the non-diversified food and grocery portfolio from earlier this year.  Definitely the grocers like Metro and Loblaws are having a banner year so far, up 15% and 13% respectively in just under 4 months.  However the rest of the food industry stocks are all just treading water.

It's too soon to predict what the one year performance of this portfolio will be but right now we are doing  about 2% to 3% for the quarter year.

You can see that the overall food stocks (excluding L and MRU) are faring no better than the rest of the TSX which is also treading water.

May 2017 Portfolio

So that brings us to our newest M2017 portfolio.  I created this portfolio just days before the market sold off, which is why most of the stocks are underwater.  As I mentioned in my last post, it's getting harder and harder to find stocks which match my criteria for these portfolios.  To reiterate what I'm looking for:

Market Cap over 1B
P/E ratio under 30, preferably under 20
Positive EPS
Beta under 1
Share price above $10
Positive trajectory in 1 and 5 year performance
Decent dividend yield of above 2% is bonus

Yup it's been down close to 3% for the past month.

Even the TSX is doing better than the latest portfolio.  Well not really at -1%, but whatever.

Summary

Portfolios and total overall returns (inclusive of dividend yield)

May 2014 - 16.42% (down, since last checked in Feb, 2017)
May 2015 - 15.36% (up, since last checked in Feb 2017)
May 2016 - 16.17% (up, since last checked in Feb 2017)
Feb 2017 - 3.52% (for 3 months)
May 2017 - (2.91%), down since portfolio inception


 Anyways, we will look in again around the August or September timeframe.   See you then.

Model Portfolio Review at Feb 24, 2017

Hi and welcome back to my portfolio blog.  It's time to look at how my stock picks are doing.

M2014 Portfolio

We see considerable improvement on the May 2014 portfolio.  If it wasn't for the market downturn this past week, this portfolio's gain would all be in the green.  As it stands, it's not looking too shabby.
EQB had a big jump in it's share price this month.  The only stock that's losing money is LNR, but not by much.  The portfolio is now returning 15% as we approach May 2017, so we can say, for now,  that the average return is about 5% per year more or less.  Biggest winners in our portfolio are GIB.A (tech) with over 67% and GC at 58% return at this review.

Here's the May 2014 portfolio performance graph.  After a dismal 2016, things are starting to look up again.  The total return of the portfolio, inclusive of dividends is over 17%, so that gives us a dividend yield of about 2.5%.  Our performance graph also compares our returns to the TSX over the same period of time and we did a whole lot better than it's 5% return.  The actual return of the TSX therefore was only about 1.7% each year for about three years.  That's pretty close to current GIC rates.   So you definitely don't want to just buy the index or mutual funds that just mirror the TSX composite returns. 

M2015 Portfolio

What can I say about the May 2015 portfolio that I haven't already talked about in past posts.  DH continues to be the loser stock in our holdings.  With the exception of DH and SJ, the remainder of the stocks have held up well, with three of our holdings yielding double digit returns.  I have Telus (T) in my RRSP and this stock hasn't seen any uptick in share price.  Luckily it provides a 4% dividend, so it's worth holding on to it for that.

In fact, if you look at the total returns of the May 2015 portfolio, and include the dividend yield of 5%, it doubles the return at over 10%.  It would be even more if DH wasn't doing so poorly.   Whereas the TSX only returned 3.4% in the last year and a half. 

M2016 Portfolio

My most recent portfolio is as of May 2016.  It hasn't been an entire year yet, and it is up over 8% before dividends.  Already there are three stocks in our seven stock portfolio with double digit gains. The only laggard is FCR right now at just under minus 1%.

With dividends, this portfolio is returning over 10% and is pretty much on par with the TSX return for the same time frame, except that we don't have any exposure to resource or gold stocks.  It's interesting that this portfolio was outperforming the TSX until November 2016, which is the time that Donald Trump got elected as president of the USA.  I guess we will have to see what the portfolio consequences are in the next couple of years.

Summary

Portfolio and total overall returns (inclusive of dividend yield)

May 2014 - 17.89%
May 2015 - 10.16%
May 2016 - 10.57% (for 9 months)

A New Portfolio

Instead of waiting for May 2017, some of you may know that I have already created a new portfolio for 2017.  I decided to throw caution to the wind and instead of diversifying, I created a new portfolio in the first week of February 2017 that holds only food and grocery stocks.  I wouldn't do this in any of my own portfolios, but I was thinking about what Donald Trump's presidency would mean to my actual portfolios.  Right now, the markets are extremely bullish and I think there should be some kind of reversal.

I created the new food portfolio because despite any major catastrophe, people still have to eat, hence the food and grocery portfolio.  So, what I'm saying now is that I'm a bit contrarian to what's happening in the markets.  I have sold off some stocks that have reached new highs in my real portfolios.

Anyways, in the next few days, I will reveal the seven stocks in the Feb 2017 portfolio or F2017 for short.   See you then!