Month Five Performance - 0.9%

Yikes!  The financial media had hinted that a correction was overdue and it started a few days after last month's post.  Here you can see the TSX decline over the past month, leading to about a 10% loss.

Our test portfolio went into the red that day, giving back all the gains it had accumulated for the past 5 months.  Here are the returns on the day after the markets fell out.

We saw from the last few months that Linamar (LNR) performance was certainly disappointing, but it dropped to an all time portfolio low of -15%.  Despite the stomach churning drop from the previous day, the test portfolio actually didn't suffer too badly.   

So, on to the details.  Besides Linamar, West Fraser Timber (WFT) lost money, butonly about 1.5% and Equitable Group (EQB) broke even.   The remainder of the stocks didn't seem to be too affected.

Great Canadian Gaming (GC) didn't flinch at all holding at 19%.  Gildan Activewear (GIL) and Stantec (STN) both ok at around 7%.  CGI at a modest 3%.

Here's the YTD chart of the portfolio.  Total dividend payout to date is  $98.  Most of the portfolio gains of $2000 had vanished.   Now we have to wait and see how the test portfolio fares for the rest of the year.

Let's hope there's better news next month.  Check back in around the middle of November.

Month Four Performance - 6.4%

The model portfolio was almost up 8% in the past couple of weeks before shedding almost 2% in the last few days.  Here's a look at how it's doing.

The portfolio is currently showing a gain of  just over 6% with all stocks in the green except Linamar.  It definitely looks like LNR has run out of steam over the past 4 months, now down 3%.  STN  is up another 5% from last month since the announcement of a stock split coming in the next few months.  WFT has also jumped 14% in the past month, going from a loss of 6% to a nice gain of 8% this month.  CGI has gone from flat to 6% this month.  The remaining stocks have given back about 1 to 2% since August.

Another $20 of dividends were received this past month from LNR and EQB with a total portfolio gain of $2252.  If we average out the YTD return of 6.4% over 4 months we get an average of 1.6% per month.

I should point out that only 5 of the 7 stocks in this portfolio pay any kind of dividend, and none more than 1% yield, so it relies a lot more on growth than income.

Here's the portfolio returns and graph for the past 4 months:

Sep: 6.4%, $2252

Aug: 4%, $1419

Jul: 3%, $1027

Jun: 0.5%, $186

The rounded top of the graph looks like the top of a roller coaster.  Looks like markets will be heading downwards in the next weeks or months.   As a side note I sold off LNR in my wife's portfolio last month, seeing as how it hasn't done much in the last 4 months.

Incidentally, I wanted to see how the test portfolio performance compares with the broader TSX, so I charted the graph between the middle of May until now.

What a surprise that the 7 stocks in the model portfolio mirrors the TSX in performance gains of 6%  and also in the shape of the graph!   And here's the same YTD graph for the TSX ETF called XIU.

XIU is an index fund which is a mutual fund that trades like a stock.  This fund is comprised of the TSX 60 largest companies.  See the description from Google Finance for more info.
https://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE%3AXIU&ei=Ag0YVPC5JpLV8QbsgoGIAg

If you only could buy one stock and wanted to replicate the returns of the overall TSX, this would be it.  It's 4 month return is 6.76% doing just a bit better than the model portfolio.  It even has a 2.25% dividend yield, which I'm guessing is why it's outperforming the model portfolio by a couple of percentage points (6.7% vs 6.4%).  You also would save on the transaction fees, $10 vs. $70.

I will continue to track the model portfolio vs. XIU and the TSX in the coming months to see how we are doing.

Month Three Performance - 4%

Despite the market gyrations on July 31st and during the first week of August, the test portfolio has held up ok.  Here's this month's results.

And here is the 3 month performance graph.

Gainers this month:  Great Canadian Gaming (GC) up a handsome 28% since portfolio inception.  Equitable Group (EQ) up a respectable 8%, Stantec (STN) up 7% and Gildan (GIL) up 6%.

Losers this month:  West Fraser Timber (WFT) continues it's decline with a loss of over 6%, CGI (GIB.A) and Linamar (LNR) both flat since portfolio inception.

Total dividends paid out to date are $34, latest from Gildan on Aug 12, and portfolio growth is now $1419.

Here's the portfolio returns for the past 3 months:

Aug: 4%, $1419

Jul: 3%, $1027

Jun: 0.5%, $186

Market pundits anticipate a mostly sideways market until October/November, so I expect September to be a less than interesting month on the markets.